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Welcome to the EVENT SCHEDULE & DIRECTORY for the 10th Annual Salt Lake County Watershed Symposium
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Congratulations to Carl Adams of DWQ. He was nominated by peers, and celebrated with peers, as the 2016 Watershed Steward of the Year!

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Tuesday, November 15 • 9:55am - 10:20am
Leaving the Past Behind: Water Supply Forecasting in the Great Basin

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Leaving the Past Behind: Water Supply Forecasting in the Great Basin
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) provides forecasts of water supply conditions to resource managers throughout the Eastern Great Basin regions using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) methods that are largely driven by historical observations of temperature and precipitation. Currently, the CBRFC does not incorporate climatic information, such as teleconnections (e.g., the El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO]), into the development of its streamflow ensembles; further, as the impacts of climate change are realized, the past may no longer be representative of future conditions. To address these issues, the CBRFC is investigating the incorporation of a Stochastic Weather Generator (SWG) developed by the University of Colorado. Additionally, numerous agencies issue climate outlooks that describe the probability that a region with experience warmer, normal, or cooler conditions with regards to temperature and wetter, normal, or drier conditions with regards to precipitation. Research published by the University of Colorado has shown that a SWG weighted by probabilities related to the ENSO may improve forecast skill in the San Juan River Basin, as well as other regions outside of the Colorado River Basin. In this study, the SWG is applied within the Great Basin and weighted using climate probabilities developed by the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center. The ensemble of streamflow events developed using the SWG is then compared to historical ensembles used in the forecast of water supply over the region.

Moderators
avatar for Austin White

Austin White

Field Technician, Salt Lake County Watershed Planning & Restoration

Speakers
avatar for W. Paul Miller

W. Paul Miller

Service Coordination Hydrologist, Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Paul Miller currently works for the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center as the Service Coordination Hydrologist in Salt Lake City, Utah. Prior to joining the CBRFC in November 2012, Paul worked for the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Lower Colorado Region for about 7 years investigating the impacts of climate change to the Colorado River Basin. Paul received his B.S. in Environmental Hydrology and Water Resources from the University of Arizona in... Read More →



Tuesday November 15, 2016 9:55am - 10:20am
3_Utah Cultural Celebration Center: ROOM 104/105 1355 W 3100 S, West Valley City UT 84119

Attendees (26)